No Deal Brexit- The Prediction For Rayners Lane House Prices
What happened to the predicted Rayners Lane house price crash of 15% that didn’t happen in the Summer of 2020? Or the predicted fall of 18% Rayners Lane house prices by the Treasury if we voted to leave the EU at the 2016 Referendum? How will a No Deal Brexit affect the value of your property? It really comes down to two things...
Roll the clock back to April 2020, and major financial economists and property market commenters were sounding the alarm. The very best-case scenario was a 5% drop in property values by the end of the year, and most were in the 10% to 15% range. They forewarned the Covid-19 stimulated recession would trim tens of thousands of pounds off the value of Rayners Lane homes.
Yet the Rayners Lane property market seemed not to get the memo on that, and now as we find ourselves at the end of 2020 and the worst of lockdown restrictions appear to be passed, vaccinations on the way and economy starting to grow, Rayners Lane property prices seem to be doing quite well.
What happened to the Rayners Lane house price crash that wasn't?
Before I answer that, it reminded me of what the Treasury said in 2016 about a leave vote on the Brexit referendum. The considered opinion of the Treasury was house prices would drop by 18% if the Country voted to leave the EU, so let us see what that would have done to Rayners Lane house prices if that had taken place and then what exactly has happened in the last four and half years …
Rayners Lane Detached
Average Value 2016: £585,300
Predicted Drop By The Treasury because of Brexit: £479,900
Average Value Today: £632,800
Uplift in Value in Last 4.5 Years: £47,500
% Increase Since Brexit Vote: 9.1%
Rayners Lane Semi
Average Value 2016: £395,500
Predicted Drop By The Treasury because of Brexit: £324,300
Average Value Today: £432,200
Uplift in Value in Last 4.5 Years: £36,700
% Increase Since Brexit Vote: 8.3%
Rayners Lane Terraced/ Town House
Average Value 2016: £429,800
Predicted Drop By The Treasury because of Brexit: £352,400
Average Value Today: £430,300
Uplift in Value in Last 4.5 Years: £500
% Increase Since Brexit Vote: 1.1%
Rayners Lane Apartments
Average Value 2016: £193,960
Predicted Drop By The Treasury because of Brexit: £159,050
Average Value Today: £188,900
Uplift in Value in Last 4.5 Years: -£50,600
% Increase Since Brexit Vote: -3.6%
So why has the Rayners Lane property market not matched the property pundits twice in the last five years or so?
Well for most of us, owning a property is about having somewhere to live rather than an investment (an Englishman’s home is his castle??). Nevertheless, once a homeowner is on the proverbial ‘property ladder’, it cannot be denied that it is eternally beneficial to know, as a homeowner, that you have made a healthy investment in your home and that the value will rise to alleviate the ache of trading up market — or down market when you retire.
Those Rayners Lane homeowners who own detached homes would have made an average of £47,500 profit, a rise of 9.1% or a weekly profit of £182.69 — calculated between the price they would have paid in the summer of 2016 and the price they would sell for today. Looking at the weekly profit for all property types in Rayners Lane since the Brexit vote …
· Rayners Lane detached homes weekly profit of £182.69 per week
· Rayners Lane semi-detached homes weekly profit of £141.15 per week
· Rayners Lane terraced homes/town houses weekly profit of £1.92 per week
· Rayners Lane apartments weekly loss of £194.62 per week
Whilst it is no surprise the property market boom was inspired by the Chancellor’s Stamp Duty holiday, this is not exclusively the Chancellor’s achievement. The three ‘D’s have been with us throughout 2020, Covid or no Covid (Debt, Divorce and Death), together with a huge shift in the way Rayners Lane homeowners see their homes. With us cooped up during the lockdown and working from our dining room tables, the want and need of Rayners Lane people to have a home with an extra bedroom to work from, together with a garden, has been one of the most challenging this year… hence the rise in demand.
So, what of 2021? It’s true that the country will have high unemployment, yet at the same time, we have ultra-low interest rates and for the last 20 years, on average we have only built 150,000 households per year as a nation, but needed 300,000 per year to keep up with immigration, people living longer and changes in the way households are made up (compared to the Millennium).
Many people can predict what will happen – yet none of us really know what will actually happen to the Rayners Lane property market in 2021.
Covid was a black swan event and the fallout from that, I believe, has changed Rayners Lane peoples' lives and their lifestyles, especially how they see their home. Instead of making predictions, nothing can get away from property market fundamentals, which have driven price booms on the back of high demand for homes and low supply (i.e. properties coming onto the market) and price crashes on the back of over-supply and low demand. Only time will tell if, in 2021, the Rayners Lane property market will see a flood of properties coming to the market because of debt or the demand for larger homes continues to rise unabated.
Please do let me know your thoughts on the matter.
