8% drop in Rayners Lane Homes ‘For Sale’ in Last 3 Months
What does this mean for Rayners Lane property owners?
With most Rayners Lane families home schooling their children in lockdown and the forthcoming Stamp Duty Holiday deadline on the 31st March 2021, less Rayners Lane properties have been coming onto the Rayners Lane, HA2 property market since the new year. This has prompted an 8% drop in the supply of Rayners Lane homes for sale compared to November 2020.
For the past couple of decades, like clockwork, Rayners Lane estate agents’ busiest times for putting property onto the market is the new year to Easter rush, with a smaller flurry of new properties coming onto the market in the mid/late summer. Yet, since the ending of lockdown 1.0 in the late spring 2020, nothing has been normal about the Rayners Lane property market.
Throughout the summer, the number of properties coming onto the market in Rayners Lane steadily rose to its peak in November and the number of properties then becoming sold subject to contract (stc) rose even higher (and whilst statistics don’t exist for the properties sold stc, anecdotal evidence suggests there were just under 50% more Rayners Lane properties sold stc in the last six months of 2020, compared to the same 6 months in 2019).
However, back to the number of properties for sale…
the peak of the number of Rayners Lane properties on the market in autumn was 337 – that now stands at 310.
The first lockdown caused many Rayners Lane homeowners to want to move with the need for extra space to work from home and in some cases larger gardens. This was further exacerbated by Rayners Lane home movers also trying to take advantage of the Stamp Duty Holiday to save themselves money on this tax.
This meant many more Rayners Lane properties came onto the market (more than a “normal” year) in the last 6 months of 2020. However, those Rayners Lane home movers motivated to move for the extra space/save money on the tax, did so in the summer/autumn and have already placed their home on the market (and are probably by now sold stc rushing to get their house purchases through before the deadline on the tax savings).
So, how does Rayners Lane compare to other property markets, and what does this reduction in Rayners Lane properties on the market mean to Rayners Lane homeowners and Rayners Lane landlords?
There are 30% more properties on the market today in Rayners Lane, compared to 12 months ago.
Interesting when compared that to the London and national picture. There are 39.5% more properties for sale than a year ago in London, whilst nationally, according to Zoopla, there are 12% less properties on the market today (compared to a year ago). Yet it gets a lot more interesting when you look at what type of property is on the market in London.
There are currently 47,900 apartments for sale in London compared to January 2020, when there were only 32,600 – a rise of 46.9% … all the more interesting when there are only 15.1% more London semi-detached houses for sale and 1.8% more London detached homes over the same 12-month period.
The jump in London apartments for sale is being pushed by an upsurge of London up-sizers eager to trade their city living apartment up to suburban houses, and a small handful of panicky London buy to let investors who are wanting to exit the London property market following falling rents for apartments. Looking closer to home in Rayners Lane, there are…
75% more detached properties for sale in Rayners Lane than a year ago, whilst there are 32% less terraced homes.
So, whilst there are some differences between the supply of individual types of property in Rayners Lane (e.g. detached vs terraced houses), the overall reduction in the number (i.e. supply) of properties for sale can only mean one thing, when there is a reduction in the supply of anything and demand remains stable, this will mean continued upward pressure on Rayners Lane house prices in the short term.
Will overall demand for Rayners Lane property continue to be stable?
Lockdown 3.0 will probably cause another wave of Rayners Lane people who want to move home (thus increasing demand). The last property crash (the Credit Crunch in 2008/9) was caused by a huge increase in the supply of properties for sale in London when people lost their jobs and interest rates were much higher. People couldn’t afford their mortgages and so dumped their homes onto the market all at the same time – causing an oversupply of property for sale and hence house prices dropped.
The number of London properties for sale increased from 66,250 in early 2007 to 100,200 in May 2008, a rise of 51%.
It was this increase in the level of property for sale in London that caused Rayners Lane property prices to drop between 16% and 19% (depending on the type of property) in Rayners Lane over the 12 to 14 months of the Credit Crunch. So, whilst the Rayners Lane property market is slightly top heavy with detached, as long there is no sudden change in the demand or supply of properties and interest rates remain at their current ultra-low level – the medium-term prospects for the Rayners Lane property market look reasonably good.
If you are a Rayners Lane homeowner or a Rayners Lane buy to let landlord and want to chat about the future of the Rayners Lane property market – do drop me a line.