Will local House Prices Fall in 2022?
As 1 in 5 local homes are selling within a fortnight of coming to market...
One of the most astounding things that has happened in the last 12 months was something that did not happen. Even after the country saw the deepest recession since the Great Freeze of 1709 with GDP dropping 28% in one quarter, one would have expected a large fall in house prices would follow. Yet…
Local house prices are 5.4% higher than 12 months ago.
Even though buying and selling property was put on ice for the first time in the history of the property market last spring due to the Covid 19 outbreak, as the property market wobbled on the edge of deep recession, it stepped back in early summer and now it is rocketing upwards as…
19.2% of local homes are selling within a fortnight of coming to market.
Some commentators have suggested the end of the Stamp Duty holiday together with the ending of the furlough scheme on the 30th September 2021 could be the catalyst for a drop in house prices. Even the Government’s own regulator of finances expects UK house prices to fall around a couple of percentage points in 2022 whilst some others have predicted around a 5% drop as unemployment levels increase post furlough.
However, other property market forecasters believe that property values in 2022 won’t drop against the background of robust British economic recovery in Q3 and Q4 of 2021.
What do I think will happen to the local property market in the next 12 months?
On the positive side, what I do know is the Stamp Duty holiday enabled local homebuyers to spend those tax savings on the price paid for their home and that certainly accounts for some of the uplift in house prices mentioned above.
Also, the historically low interest rates that have supported homebuyers’ affordability for the last 13 years since the Credit Crunch has continued. Secondly, with people spending many months working from home, this has seemed to have polarised people’s inclination to make lifestyle changes. Finally, the Government has recently introduced 5% deposit mortgages for first-time buyers. All these factors will fuel demand and hence may cause house prices to rise.
On a more cautious note, I do not believe these very sturdy local house value rises of the past year will persist at these levels for the next 12 months. With buyers having to use many thousands of pounds on Stamp Duty, the price they pay for their home will be curtailed, meaning property values by definition will ease.
The simple fact is the British economy has yet to feel the full effect of its largest recession since 1709, and we must remain considerate about the long-term effects of the economy (and unemployment levels) on the property market.
These are interesting times for the local property market. If the price you want to achieve for your home is the most important thing, now as opposed to 2022 might be a good time to consider placing your property on the market.
Don’t forget, you can still put your property on the market, find a buyer and then go and see what is available to buy. Many buyers will wait for you to find a property, yet if they can’t/won’t – you won’t be made homeless. English property law means you can still come away from the sale and you won’t be forced to sell.
If you would like to know a bit more about that or any aspect of buying or selling property locally, drop me a message or call me.